Coal market outlook 2015 pdf

The outlook for future coal demand differs widely in the short medium. This decline in coal production has not occurred uniformly across. Coal bed methane cbm market analysis, market size, application analysis, regional outlook, competitive strategies and forecast, 2015 to 2025 published. Developments in thermal coal markets thermal coal prices increased markedly over the decade to 2011, driven by a substantial increase in global demand.

Future coal markets, partial equilibrium modeling, international trade. Coal supplies over onethird of global electricity generation and plays a crucial role in industries such as iron and steel. In the past two years 2015 and 2016, the coal sector was particularly hard hit by a combination of warm weather and record low gas prices. This years edition of the ieas mediumterm coal market report presents, for the first time, a chinese peak coal case, which explores the factors that could cause coal use in china to enter a structural decline. South africas coal market, the value chain and the different uses of coal. Despite legitimate concerns about air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, coal use is likely to continue to be significant in the future in the absence of concerted government policy. This study is supported by the ministry of economy, trade and industry meti, which has recently permitted us to release this paper. Rather the value of the energy outlook is in providing a structure and discipline. There have been some signs of improvement for the industry in the past several months with increased coal deliveries. South african cash costs for seaborne thermal coal are amongst the most competitive globally. Eia to focus more resources on rapidly changing energy markets both in the united states. The current rise in global coal production is a result of growing demand and consumption. Average minemouth coal prices by region in the reference case, 19902040. Average minemouth coal prices by region in the reference case, 1990 2040.

After a steep fall in gold and silver prices in 20, iron ore, coal, and copper followed suit in 2014. For further information energy information administration. The value of the outlook is not in trying to predict the future. In terms of coal grade, the metallurgical coal market can be divided into hard coking coals hcc, semisoft coking coal sscc, and pulverized coal injection pci coal. Price weakness, particularly iron ore and coal, will test companies gearing levels, while junior companies will continue to face funding challenges. It shows how rising prosperity drives an increase in global energy demand and how that demand will be met over the coming decades through a diverse range of supplies including oil, gas, coal and renewables. The world energy outlook series is a leading source of strategic insight on the future of energy and energyrelated emissions, providing detailed scenarios that map out the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices. Forecasted coking coal price from 2019 to 2023 by type in nominal u. Unctad, april 2014 south african thermal coal market. Coal demand drop in china and us in 2015 was unprecedented. Energy information administration eia, presents longterm annual projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040. Risks in the oil market include a supply disruption in the gulf or central asia.

October 29, 2019 energy and metal commodity prices are expected to continue to fall in 2020, following sharp declines in 2019 of 15 and 5 percent, respectively, on a weaker outlook for global growth and consequently softer demand, the world bank said in its october commodity markets outlook. Coal is a global industry, with coal mined commercially in over 50 countries and used in over 70. Most of the coal mining companies in china are controlled by the government. Platts coal alert is an online platform providing realtime news, bids, offers and trades as well as endofday prices for todays coal markets. The australian export benchmark is the newcastle 6,000kcal net as received nar free on board fob index. A model of the international steam coal market econstor. Steel consumption had been relatively lackluster and stable compared. Marchapril 2016 pdf 319kb december 2015 january 2016 pdf 368kb mining. Power market study 2030 a new outlook for the energy industry.

Carbon tracker initiative bleak outlook for coal investors. A strategic market outlook to 2020 metal bulletin research glossary of terms 2 foreword the revival of the coking industry was driven by an increase in world steel demand. Coal is expected to remain as the most affordable source for the generation of power in many countries for decades. Steel consumption had been relatively lackluster and stable compared to other commodities, but the last decade was. Mergers, acquisitions and capital raising in mining and.

Developments in thermal coal markets reserve bank of australia. The energy outlook explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition. Coal prices started their recovery from the financial crisis by late 2009, and. Coal continues to be the largest source of coop selfgeneration, but its share has trended downward in. Additional data for natural gas, coal, hydroelectricity, nuclear energy, electricity and renewables. India is set for a period of rapid, sustained growth in energy demand. Fob cash costs for seaborne thermal coal exports, 2012 source. Eia, annual energy outlook 2015 reference case history 20 projections 36% 18% 27% 8% 8% 1% 33% 10% 18% 29% 8% 1% nuclear petroleum and other liquids natural gas coal renewables excluding liquid biofuels 2025 35% 19% 27% 8% 9% liquid biofuels 1% 2040 annual energy outlook 2015 may 2015. Coal production in the united states totaled 739 million short tons mmst in 2016, a 17.

Falling demand of metallurgical coal since 2012 till 2014 has resulted in the drop in its prices. Both steam and coking coal prices wildly fluctuated in the second half of 2016 due mainly to chinese factors. Medium term coal market report 2015 international energy forum. Global economic prospects october 2014 commodity markets outlook 2 account for 48. We also expect to see the market in gas become more global as liquefied. The outlook for prices and production over the next few years depends on a. This paper will discuss the possibilities of energy transition in indonesia, particularly the transition from coal fired power plants while also considering the implications to coal sector. Will they give in to the impulses that have spurred.

The forecasts for global growth were revised downwards significantly compared to the projections made in june 2015. Fundamentals such as growing supply from new lowcost projects, a stronger us dollar, weak global demand, and credit restrictions in china have pushed prices of these commodities into a technical graveyard. Hard coking coals cost higher as compared to semisoft coking coals as they have better coking properties. First, as part of chinas effort to reduce harmful emissions the. Jan 24, 2019 the coal market outlook in 2019 points to trade at similar levels as 2018, supported by growth in thermal demand from india and south east asia. Chinas coal demand declined in 2015 for the second year in a row. Since early 2015, coal supply and demand have declined year on year. What would it take for this to happen and what would it mean for energy security and for the energy transition. Asia pacific dominated the market in 2016 and this trend is anticipated to continue during the forecast period. On the contrary, oecd demand is expected to decline marginally during this period. Coal mining production, 1985 to 2015 millions of short tons source. Fundamentals such as growing supply from new lowcost projects, a stronger us dollar, weak global demand, and credit restrictions in china have pushed prices of these commodities into a technical.

Coal production has continued to slow, primarily because of low electric power demand. Energy information administration annual energy outlook 2015 23 electricity generation competition from renewables, leads to the projected retirement of 31 gigawatts gw of coalfired generating capacity and the conversion of 4 gw of coalfired generating capacity to. Meanwhile, coal is now expected to be the slowest growing fuel, as. Figure 3 illustrates coal production growth trends in appalachia by quarter, from 2000 to 2015. Metallurgical coal market global industry analysis and. The detailed projections are generated by the world energy model, a largescale simulation tool, developed at the iea over a period of more than 20 years that is designed to replicate how energy markets function. The information in the report is not financial advice.

Status of global coal markets and major demand trends in key. Follow the latest developments in the global coal market in 2019 using commodities tradeflows data from pointconnect. Global coking coal price forecast by type 20192023 statista. The author would particularly like to thank tim atkin, corrinne dobson, stephen elias and tenzin ringpapontsang for their contributions to this analysis. Electric industry generation, capacity, and markets outlook 3 cooperative focus coop owned electric plants generated about 219 million mwh of output in 2017,3 roughly 5% of u. In china, coal demand is in structural and slow decline driven by a new economic growth model and diversification from coal however, dependence on coal of china will remain and demand in 2021 is forecast higher than in 2015 coal trade contracts, but recovers at the end of the outlook period.

Trend of coal prices the spot steam coal price an fob price at newcastle port in australia rose before the winter demand. The report includes detailed market analysis for most primary commodities, including energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. This years energy outlook provides fresh insight into these trends and many more. The coal market outlook in 2019 refinitiv perspectives. The metallurgical coal market can be segmented based on coal grade and region. Coal market outlook editorapril 16, 2020 0 this document summarizes the northwest power and conservation councils assessment of the regional power supplys adequacy for the 2024 operating year october 2023 through. China coal import boomunderway domestic production and consumption to be capped at 3. Our outlook indicates that the top 40s improved performance will continue in 2018, as companies continue to reap the benefits of the upswing in the mining cycle. While oversupply has continued, chinas imports have decreased. Following the 2015 paris agreement, which prompted many nations across the world to. Longterm trends and outlook for global coal supply and. Is there enough coking coal to see us through this decade of immense industrial and commercial development. Understand the market value of coal in regional and global markets as well as how supply and demand fundamentals are impacting price.

Iea weo 2015 cps refers to the iea world energy outlooks current. Coal price and fx market forecasts coal price and fx market forecasts kpmgs quarterly summary of coal price forecast data for hard coking coal, pci, semisoft coking coal and newcastle benchmark thermal coal and aud. Steel market conditions have been improving gradually in most regions since late 2015, although it is uncertain how long the momentum can continue. It also includes historical and recent price data as well as price forecasts going up to 2025. May 29, 20 china coal import boomunderway domestic production and consumption to be capped at 3. The spot coking coal price an fob price for australian hard. It also studies the potential impact of such a peak on supply, prices and trade flows. The seaborne thermal coal market has entered structural decline. Existing coal plant types in the nems electricity market module. Most analysts forecast a growth in coal consumption to 4. Sep 11, 2017 the brief closes by discussing the outlook for coals future. Global coal risk assessment working paper november 2012 5 overview by july 2012 the authors of this paper had identified 1,199 proposed new coal fired plants, with a total installed capacity of 1,401,278 mw. Coal market report risks to us coal mining and export proposals october 2015 this coal market update summarizes general developments in the last financial quarter that raise the risk of investing in the us coal industry. Focused on the electricity system, neo combines the expertise of over 65 inhouse country and technologylevel specialists in 11 countries to provide a unique assessment of how the market will evolve.

Coking coal a strategic market outlook to 2020 new for 2010 metal bulletin research has undertaken comprehensive indepth research analysis into the coking coal sector for the next decade in this detailed and independent study. Commodity markets outlook is published four times a year in january, april, july and october. Conveniently and quickly download the most current industry data. World bank climate change envoy we need to wean ourselves off coal july 2015.

Indonesias electricity demand and the coal sector 1 executive summary indonesia is the worlds largest steam coal exporter and supplies half of asias steam coal imports. This follows a move in october 2014 to impose a 6 percent import tariff on thermal coal unless sourced from indonesia under the asian bilateral free trade. Over the short and medium term, important headwinds include the increase in trade actions, the rising number of new. The new energy outlook neo is bloomberg new energy finances annual longterm global forecast for the future of energy. Coal global market outlook 20162022 stratistics mrc. Having peaked in 2009, the seaborne price has fallen 60%. Bp 2004 gas reserves showing regional shares at end of 2003. Any such attempt is doomed to fail the uncertainty surrounding the energy transition is here to stay. Coal market report risks to us coal mining and export proposals july 2015 this coal market update summarizes general developments in the last financial quarter that raise the risk of investing in the us coal industry.

Read the 2015 mining industry outlook for insights into the challenges facing the industry. December 2015 fuel report mediumterm coal market report 2016. Indonesia is one of the worlds largest producers and exporters of coal. The first weo was published in 1977 and it has been an annual publication since 1998. Developments in thermal coal markets thermal coal prices increased markedly over the decade to 2011, driven by a. Several factors have contributed to this price rebound. Energy information administration shortterm energy outlook may 2020 2 be largest in the first half of 2020, rising at a rate of 6. Energy information administration eia, monthly production. Some large producers have stipulated that their mines will be shut down or idled for periods ranging from 14 to 30 days, while others have not implied a. World bank climate change envoy we need to wean ourselves off coal july 2015 25 coal market carbon tracker initiative bleak outlook for coal investors september 2014 26 bloomberg low coal price puts pressure on coal mining projects in the pipeline october 2014 26. Summary international coal market in 2015 2016 coal demand. However, dependence on coal of china will remain and demand in 2021 is forecast higher than in 2015 coal trade contracts, but recovers at the end of the outlook period viet nam, malaysia, pakistan, philippines, morocco and other importers add up to increase coal trade coal prices have strongly rebounded up in 2016. Coalfired electricity generation in the united states and.

A comprehensive overview of coal 5 coal reserves showing regional shares at end of 2003 europe and eurasia 36% asia pacific 30% north america 26% africa 6% south and central america 2% middle east coal reserves less than 1% of total reserves source. Coal market report risks to us coal mining and export proposals april 2015 this coal market update summarizes general developments in the last financial quarter that raise the risk of investing in the us coal industry. Due to its influence in the pacific basin steam coal market, indonesia plays a key role in shaping the market. Since january 2016, when the price of coal reached a 10year low, coal prices have rebounded by about 100 percent. Specific company risks can be found in the appendix following the report. Coal bed methane cbm market size, 2015 2025 industry report. Ieefa briefing note global energy markets in transition. China dominated the global metallurgical coal market in 2016. First, china has moved to reduce coal export tariffs from 10 percent to 3 percent starting on jan. South african coal sector report department of energy. Export entire page or individual visualizations to excel. Electricity generation from renewable energy sources will rise from a share of 17% last year to 20% in 2020 and 21% in 2021. Coal is readily available from a wide variety of sources in a wellsupplied worldwide market. The issue brief also includes a discussion of the current outlook for coal generators.

Appalachian coal industry, power generation and supply chain. This outlook reflects the combined effects of stagnant domestic electricity demand growth, advances in competing generation technologies offering low or no fuel costs and attractive capital costs. While oversupply continued, chinas and other imports declined in 2015. Pdf versions and powerpoint slide packs of the charts, maps and graphs, plus an excel workbook of the data. The critical question facing leaders and investors is how they will respond to their current run of good fortune. Prospects to vary by region as the year comes to a close, experts predict that next year could be tough for the coal space. Coal market outlook editorapril 16, 2020 0 this report focuses on activities within a city and calculates the decrease in energy demand for the manufacturing and construction industries, households, businesses, and.